Navigating global supply chain disruptions in a de-dollarisation world
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26 May 2025
Jigna is the Content Marketing Manager at Ebury and is passionate about crafting compelling narratives to help businesses make informed decisions.
Just as the global economy began to recover from the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, the re-implementation of U.S. tariffs has introduced further instability, hindering economic activities worldwide.
Global businesses were forced to rethink their fundamentals.
Here, we paint a picture of the current state of the global supply chain and the complex challenges that global commerce needs to navigate to thrive during this uncertain time.
Increasing inflation and volatility
Sudden tariff hikes injected instability into pricing, with some industries seeing import price increases of up to 25%¹ almost overnight. Businesses were forced into painful decision-making: absorb the costs and prune their profit margins or pass them onto consumers whilst risking a loss of market share and competitive advantage.
Supply chain restructuring
Companies began to search for alternative suppliers or markets to dodge the tariff bullet. In fact, a study by Kearney revealed that 78%² of manufacturing executives either were actively planning or had already moved their production because of these trade tensions. However, this meant navigating hurdles like renegotiating contracts and building new logistics networks.
Inventory chaos and inaccurate demand forecasting
Companies were forced to:
– cancel purchase orders
– hoard stock to avoid shortages or
– renegotiate pricing with their suppliers
This all led to increased inventory costs, inaccurate demand forecasting and tied up valuable capital amid disrupted supply chains.
Friendshoring
Friendshoring is a growing supply chain strategy where a nation prioritises trade and relationships with countries it considers geopolitical and economic allies. While not a direct outcome of de-dollarisation, they are interconnected trends which may further accelerate reduced reliance on the dollar.
These disruptions didn’t occur in isolation. Trade uncertainty and geopolitical instability continued to be a ‘perfect storm’ for businesses engaged in cross-border transactions.
Trump’s tariff back-and-forth adds a layer of difficulty to assessing the economic outlook
How global businesses can build resilience to succeed
Any business in the supply chain with an exposure to USD will need to factor in greater risk premiums. Businesses must proactively prioritise agility and diversification to navigate fragile global supply chains in an uncertain world. A systematic approach and the guidance of the right experts can help businesses optimise supply chain strategies.
Diversify your risks
– Best practices: Reduce reliance on single-source suppliers by exploring alternative markets and developing a multi-regional sourcing strategy. For example, depending on your business, you can reduce US import reliance by setting up a manufacturing facility in a low-tariff region.
– How we help you: For exporters and importers seeking alternative markets, we can help you diversify away from the US by facilitating your transactions in new corridors. For example, we can help you transact in newer markets like Hong Kong and Singapore. Also, with our currency capabilities in 130+ currencies across 160+ countries, we can help global businesses enter high-growth markets such as Vietnam, Brazil, Kenya, Nigeria, Colombia and more.
Collect locally
– Best practices: When you collect locally, you can expect cross-border payments to land on the same day without any deductions. Local collections offer convenience – for you and your global customers. Giving your customers the option to pay via local payment rails gives them a sense of confidence and security. On top of this, you avoid unnecessary deductions that can come with wires.
– How we help you: If you are an exporter or an online seller, Ebury’s comprehensive local currency account offering can help you invoice in your customers’ preferred currency. Plus, Ebury can help you hedge sale proceeds to manage FX fluctuations. With Ebury, you can open a local collection account in USD, EUR, HKD, SGD, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD and many more to collect payments like a local and experience cost-effective and faster collections.
Take control of cash flows
– Best practices: Tariffs can lead to sharp fluctuations in currency pairs, especially when dealing with USD or high-tariff currencies such as CNY, VND, THB, KHR and more. Implement a process to manage risk exposure to USD currency pairs proactively.
– How we help you: With a comprehensive FX Playbook and hedging solutions, you can lock foreign exchange rates flexibly in 60+ currencies with a host of risk management products. This helps you control the FX risks in your supply chain and achieve efficiency.
Manage inventory
– Best practices: The key to optimising the supply chain lies in better demand forecasting and inventory planning. Technological sophistication has evolved, helping companies use real-time data analytics for inventory and shipping management.
– How we help you: At Ebury, we help you bridge the working capital gap and enhance inventory management with flexible credit lines. For example, with our fast, easy and unsecured credit lines, you can finance your purchases and repay us within 150 days. This helps you bridge the working capital gap between purchasing your goods and selling the finished products.
Strengthen supplier relationships
– Best practices: Build stronger relationships with suppliers to improve communication and collaboration. One way can be to repay in their preferred currency to reduce the impact of FX fluctuations on their cash flows.
– How we help you: There are intrinsic benefits for importers in the supply chain to settle trade in local currencies as long as the risks are properly managed. At Ebury, we help you pay locally in your supplier’s preferred currency while helping you effectively mitigate FX risk by locking in an exchange rate in advance.
Plan for unforeseen events
– Best practices: Create potential future global economic and geopolitical situations, and plan how your supply chain would react. Conduct a re-examination of the entire trading process, develop contingency plans and prioritise adaptability and responsiveness for potential disruptions.
– How we help you: With global currency coverage and a dedicated team, our experts can help you identify and prepare for any hidden risks. For example, depending on the markets you transact in and the industry, our team can guide you through a bespoke FX strategy that perfectly aligns with your business circumstances, needs and risk tolerance levels.
The state of the global supply chain tomorrow
Global trade has already been on a trend of de-dollarisation, and we could see an acceleration in that trend.
It is yet to be seen if the current period of instability will be temporary or will continue to build. If transitory, the global supply chain might have already survived the worst of it. In this case, the global supply chain can recalibrate and function normally, albeit with new strategies, processes and cost structures.
Sources
1. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
2. Kearney Reshoring Index.
Other interesting reads
Resources to help you navigate de-dollarisation and transform this turmoil into an opportunity.
Disclaimer
The information provided herein is general in nature and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The information provided here is not legally binding. The information, data or views expressed here are for the exclusive use of the recipient and are subject to changes without any notice. You may ask the support team or your dedicated relationship manager to provide additional information regarding Ebury products. For more details, please refer to our legal and privacy notice.
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