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The fragile ceasefire in the Iran war is fraying as the US actively tries to break Iran's blockade while maintaining its own.
In light of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, now is not the time for the Fed to over commit, and we fully expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at its April meeting.
While the shaky Iran war ceasefire is holding, for now, the near-complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still in force from both sides, and there is little sign that peace talks are making progress, or even taking place.
Trump's optimistic announcements on Friday regarding a possible agreement with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were greeted with a severe fall in oil prices and a sharp move higher in risk assets. The former proved to be short-lived.
The rally in risk assets on ceasefire optimism came to a halt over the weekend. The ceasefire talks between the US and Iran collapsed in Pakistan and the US announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be blockaded to ships going to or from Iranian ports.
The most important European elections of 2026 are just around the corner. On 12 April, Hungarians will head to the polls to decide whether Fidesz will remain in power after 16 years in government. This is a decision that could alter the course set by Viktor Orbán, leading to a reset in relations with the European Union.
The war in Iran is now entering its second month without any clear prospects for either a ceasefire or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iran war is now in its second week, and markets are bracing for the possibility that it will last a while.
The US dollar confirmed last week that it remains a safe-haven currency of choice for investors during times of global conflict.
The New Year has begun with a bang following the shock ousting and capture of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro by US forces over the weekend, but the early reaction in currency and futures markets has been calm.
The dollar sold off against most of its peers after the Federal Reserve fell short of delivering on market expectations for a "hawkish cut" last week.
As the results of the UK general election filtered through during the early hours, markets responded with a shrug to the anticipated Labour majority victory under newly-appointed Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Despite a narrower victory margin than both the polls and models had predicted, the impact on sterling has thus far been muted, reflecting investor preparedness for the political landscape that lies ahead.
