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The latest flare up in tensions between the US and Iran failed to trigger any significant safe haven flows in currency markets, or in any financial markets for that matter.
The half time whistle has sounded on 2026, drawing to a close an eventful first six months of the year that will predominantly be remembered for the elevated geopolitical risk premium associated with the Iran war.
The dollar rally that has lasted since early May seems to be petering out.
A pull back in risk sentiment saw stocks markets drop globally last week, led by the big winners of the last few years, technology companies.
Investors will be forgiven for having half an eye on the sports pages this month as the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off, bringing the usual mix of drama and excitement. That said, financial markets are set to serve up a spectacle of their own.
Financial news last week was dominated by the sharp sell off in bond markets worldwide.
The war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
The standoff between the US and Iran shows little sign of abating, after President Trump dismissed Tehran's response to peace overtures over the weekend.
The war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
Say it quietly, but the war in Iran appears to be edging slowly towards an eagerly awaited finale, much to the relief of market participants.
The fragile ceasefire in the Iran war is fraying as the US actively tries to break Iran's blockade while maintaining its own.
In light of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, now is not the time for the Fed to over commit, and we fully expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at its April meeting.
