26 November 2020
The dollar has slipped to new lows against its major peers in the past 24 hours amid some slightly downbeat US economic data and growing optimism surrounding a number of COVID-19 vaccines. Versus the euro, the greenback is currently trading around its weakest positions since the beginning of September, and not far off its lowest level since May 2018. The US is expected to be one of the main beneficiaries of the COVID vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech, which earlier this month stated that its creation had yielded a 95% effectiveness against the virus in the final stages of testing. While the dollar received decent support from the news, sentiment towards the currency has since soured slightly, as investors have instead begun favouring risky currencies in the hope that the vaccines could allow economic activity to return to more normal levels by spring next year. We also had a slew of macroeconomic data out of the US on Wednesday, most of which missed its mark. Initial jobless claims jumped up to a five-week high, new homes sales unexpectedly contracted, while personal income also fell in the month to October. There is general acknowledgement that the situation for the US economy could be about to worsen before it gets better. New COVID-19 cases jumped to a daily record above 200,000 last week, with deaths yesterday rising to their highest level since early-May. A stricter reimposition of lockdown measures may well be forthcoming in many states in the coming days, which does present a bit of downside risk to the dollar. Last night’s dovish FOMC meeting minutes also far from helped the currency.
Will the ECB’s meeting accounts tee up December easing?
With investors away from their desks due to the Thanksgiving holiday today, there is little in the way of macroeconomic data out in the next couple of days. The European Central Bank will, however, be releasing the accounts from its latest policy meeting. We expect the accounts to tee up additional easing at its upcoming meeting in December, with the market overwhelmingly expecting the ECB to increase its emergency asset purchase programme. With this largely priced in, we don’t expect too much reaction in the euro this afternoon.Aside from that, a number of sentiment indices out of the Euro Area could shift the common currency between now and the end of the week, namely tomorrow’s business and consumer sentiment numbers from the European Commission. If this morning’s German consumer confidence index is anything to go by, they could be set to surprise to the downside.🎙 What effect has the latest COVID vaccine news had on the FX market?
That and more on this week's episode of FX Talk. Listen here.
