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The fragile ceasefire in the Iran war is fraying as the US actively tries to break Iran's blockade while maintaining its own.
In light of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, now is not the time for the Fed to over commit, and we fully expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at its April meeting.
While the shaky Iran war ceasefire is holding, for now, the near-complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still in force from both sides, and there is little sign that peace talks are making progress, or even taking place.
Trump's optimistic announcements on Friday regarding a possible agreement with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were greeted with a severe fall in oil prices and a sharp move higher in risk assets. The former proved to be short-lived.
The rally in risk assets on ceasefire optimism came to a halt over the weekend. The ceasefire talks between the US and Iran collapsed in Pakistan and the US announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be blockaded to ships going to or from Iranian ports.
The most important European elections of 2026 are just around the corner. On 12 April, Hungarians will head to the polls to decide whether Fidesz will remain in power after 16 years in government. This is a decision that could alter the course set by Viktor Orbán, leading to a reset in relations with the European Union.
Risk assets rallied sharply late-Tuesday into Asian trading on Wednesday amid the welcome news of a temporary US-Iran ceasefire.
The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
A feeling of deja vu is wafting over markets as the Iran war continues without a clear resolution in sight.
The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
The war in Iran is now entering its second month without any clear prospects for either a ceasefire or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, with market participants now bracing for the possibility that the conflict drags on for a matter of months, rather than just weeks.
