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March 23, 2026
Iran War: The winners and losers in FX

The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, with market participants now bracing for the possibility that the conflict drags on for a matter of months, rather than just weeks.

March 20, 2026
Iran War: Four scenarios for the FX market

The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, and as US and Israeli strikes continue, and Iran digs its heels in by continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz, markets are bracing for a conflict that could drag on for a number of months, rather than merely weeks.

March 16, 2026
Flight to US dollar speeds up as Iran war rages on

Any doubts about whether the dollar still retained its safe haven status in times of geopolitical turmoil have been dispelled.

March 9, 2026
Dollar soars as Iran war sends investors fleeing to safe havens

The Iran war is now in its second week, and markets are bracing for the possibility that it will last a while. Stocks and bonds fell in tandem, an unusual and perhaps ominous development.

January 26, 2026
Trump tariff U-turn fails to inspire a US dollar revival

The dollar had a terrible week against just about every major currency worldwide, despite President Trump’s latest U-turn and predictable backing down over his Greenland tariffs.Initial relief in financial markets did not extend to the US dollar.

January 12, 2026
Powell legal investigation revives “Sell America” fears

The US dollar confirms that it remains a safe haven for investors worried at times of global conflict.Maduro's capture, US seizure of unregistered oil tankers, Trump's threats on Denmark and the Iranian protets all contributed to a sense of anxiety and the dollar rallied against its peers, as did gold.

November 17, 2025
Record-breaking US government shutdown finally ends

Last week's wobbliness in equity markets and tech stocks did not carry over into currency markets. G10 currencies traded in tight ranges, wi...

November 10, 2025
Bank of England’s “dovish hold” hints at December rate cut

While tech stocks had their worst week since the Liberation Day sell-off in April, currency markets largely took the AI mini-crash in stride.G10 currencies remained in tight ranges, while some emerging market currencies posted modest gains.

October 27, 2025
Tight ranges hold among major currencies as Yen slips

The dollar managed to hold on rather well last week, considering that the only economic data point out of the US in weeks (September inflati...

October 20, 2025
Safe havens shine as US shutdown drags on

The absence of macroeconomic news in the US caused by the Federal government shutdown is creating strange correlations in financial markets....

September 22, 2025
Dollar rebounds after Fed's "neutral cut"

The universally expected cut in Federal Reserve overnight rates actually triggered a sell off in US bonds and a rally in the dollar.It seems that markets had been prime for an even more dovish outcome, and the single vote among committee members for a jumbo 50bo cut did not satisfy them. Stocks rallied again, however.

September 15, 2025
Fed to cut rates as US jobs market cooling rapidly

US inflation remains well above Federal Reserve targets, as has for the past five years, and is slowly trending higher.Meanwhile, signs of a labor market slowdown continue to pile up.Pressure of the Fed to cut piles up, and stocks somewhat incongruously continue to hit fresh records.

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