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The absence of macroeconomic news in the US caused by the Federal government shutdown is creating strange correlations in financial markets....
The universally expected cut in Federal Reserve overnight rates actually triggered a sell off in US bonds and a rally in the dollar.It seems that markets had been prime for an even more dovish outcome, and the single vote among committee members for a jumbo 50bo cut did not satisfy them. Stocks rallied again, however.
US inflation remains well above Federal Reserve targets, as has for the past five years, and is slowly trending higher.Meanwhile, signs of a labor market slowdown continue to pile up.Pressure of the Fed to cut piles up, and stocks somewhat incongruously continue to hit fresh records.
A tentative dollar rally came to a sudden end Friday after the release of the weak August labor market report, which suggested the great US jobs machines grinding to a halt.Markest quickly priced in cuts in the three remaining Federal Reserve meetings left in 2025, bonds rallied and stocks sold off.
President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is the most direct attack on the Fed's independence since at least th...
We witnessed one of the most dramatic U-turns that we’ve seen in the US dollar for some time last week.The first four days of the week were characterised by a broad dollar rally, as a solid GDP report, the signing of trade deals and a hawkish Fed acted to chip away at the greenback’s risk premium.
The dollar traded lower against most currencies last week as market participants became increasingly jittery ahead of Friday’s looming tariffs deadline.
The stabilization of the US dollar hit an air pocket last week after a minor Trump official announced that the president was getting ready t...
Markets seem to be weathering the latest round of Trumpian chaos.This resilience is certain to be tested this week. Markets will follow closely the trade negotiations for any hints of progress.
Solid labor data out of the US contradicted the slowdown narrative and effectively ended any possibility of a July interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.The dollar benefitted from the resulting backup in short term rates and managed to end up near the middle of the G10 performance table for the week.
The dollar broke to fresh post-"liberation day" lows as pressure builds on the Federal Reserve to cut ratesThis pressure comes from both the Trump administration, which is making increasingly clear that it does not believe in central bank independence, and a weaker ton in economic data out of the US.
The Israel-Iran war is set to dominate currency trading after the US interned late Friday by bombing Iran's main nuclear facilities.The Israel-Iran war is set to dominate currency trading after the US interned late Friday by bombing Iran's main nuclear facilities.
