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The rally in risk assets on ceasefire optimism came to a halt over the weekend. The ceasefire talks between the US and Iran collapsed in Pakistan and the US announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be blockaded to ships going to or from Iranian ports.
A feeling of deja vu is wafting over markets as the Iran war continues without a clear resolution in sight.
The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
The war in Iran is now entering its second month without any clear prospects for either a ceasefire or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iran war is now in its second week, and markets are bracing for the possibility that it will last a while.
