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While signs abound that the negotiations between Iran and the US are making progress, the US dollar is holding on to its safe haven gains, and European currencies appear to have trouble taking advantage of the positive investor sentiment.

Financial news last week was dominated by the sharp sell off in bond markets worldwide.
The war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.

Say it quietly, but the war in Iran appears to be edging slowly towards an eagerly awaited finale, much to the relief of market participants.

The fragile ceasefire in the Iran war is fraying as the US actively tries to break Iran's blockade while maintaining its own.

While the shaky Iran war ceasefire is holding, for now, the near-complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still in force from both sides, and there is little sign that peace talks are making progress, or even taking place.

Trump's optimistic announcements on Friday regarding a possible agreement with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were greeted with a severe fall in oil prices and a sharp move higher in risk assets. The former proved to be short-lived.

The most important European elections of 2026 are just around the corner. On 12 April, Hungarians will head to the polls to decide whether Fidesz will remain in power after 16 years in government. This is a decision that could alter the course set by Viktor Orbán, leading to a reset in relations with the European Union.

Risk assets rallied sharply late-Tuesday into Asian trading on Wednesday amid the welcome news of a temporary US-Iran ceasefire.

The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.

A feeling of deja vu is wafting over markets as the Iran war continues without a clear resolution in sight.

The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting
