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Uncertainty surrounding last week's Federal Reserve meeting was unusually high. In the end, not only did the Fed not raise rates, but chair Warsh sounded rather dovish.

The Iran war has dragged on for longer than markets had anticipated in the spring, which is creating a challenging backdrop for emerging market currencies.

Markets are finally beginning to take notice of the renewed US-Iran hostilities and surge in oil prices, which last week jumped back above $100 a barrel.

After raising rates in June, the Governing Council will likely stand pat at its July meeting, though renewed US-Iran tensions have raised the risk of another rate hike in September.

The collapse of the ceasefire between Iran and the US, and the escalating military conflict in the Middle East, has so far failed to shake markets from their summer torpor and currencies are no exception.
