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The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
The war in Iran is now entering its second month without any clear prospects for either a ceasefire or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, with market participants now bracing for the possibility that the conflict drags on for a matter of months, rather than just weeks.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, and as US and Israeli strikes continue, and Iran digs its heels in by continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz, markets are bracing for a conflict that could drag on for a number of months, rather than merely weeks.
Any doubts about whether the dollar still retained its safe haven status in times of geopolitical turmoil have been dispelled.
The Iran war is now in its second week, and markets are bracing for the possibility that it will last a while.
A tentative rally in the dollar was sharply reversed over the weekend after the US Supreme Court ruled most of President Trump's tariffs to be illegal.
The US dollar confirmed last week that it remains a safe-haven currency of choice for investors during times of global conflict.
The New Year has begun with a bang following the shock ousting and capture of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro by US forces over the weekend, but the early reaction in currency and futures markets has been calm.
The dollar sold off against most of its peers after the Federal Reserve fell short of delivering on market expectations for a "hawkish cut" last week.
As the results of the UK general election filtered through during the early hours, markets responded with a shrug to the anticipated Labour majority victory under newly-appointed Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Despite a narrower victory margin than both the polls and models had predicted, the impact on sterling has thus far been muted, reflecting investor preparedness for the political landscape that lies ahead.
Investors have no time to rest on their laurels as we approach the Christmas break and year-end, with all of the world’s ‘Big Three’ central banks to unveil their final policy decisions of 2023 this week.
