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The kiwi ended the week stronger, supported by the weaker US payrolls print alongside building momentum into next week's RBNZ meeting, where markets are pricing a 76% probability of a hike. As noted in our preview last week, we continue to expect the Bank to deliver a hawkish hold rather than move on Wednesday, pausing before what we still see as the start of a hiking cycle in September.
The kiwi had another volatile week, falling below 58 US cents for the first time in two months as US-Iran tensions flared before recovering to close around 58.3 US cents, ending the week above where it opened as prospects of a peace deal lifted risk sentiment. Overall, the currency experienced sharp swings through the week, with movements largely dictated by geopolitical developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations
The kiwi was weaker last week, as USD caught a bid on the back of hotter-than-expected US inflation data, with softer NZ domestic output and stalling US-Iran peace talks also adding further pressure to the local currency.
