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Financial markets breathed easier after better than expected inflation data out of the US last week.

2024 was a year characterised by political upheaval, central bank U-turns and US economic exceptionalism that propelled the dollar to a near flawless FX performance.

The relentless dollar rally continued for yet another week, fuelled by sharply higher bond yields in the US and signs that the world’s largest economy is, yet again, gaining momentum.

The holiday period, and the first few trading sessions of 2025, brought no respite for the FX market from the main themes of late-2024.

The ECB meeting last week went mostly according to the script, with a 25bp cut and significant downward revisions to the bank’s view on Euro Area economic growth.

G10 currencies all traded in a holding pattern last week, as investors await the December meetings of the key central banks, including the ECB this week and the Federal Reserve and the BoE the next one.

The so-called Trump trade suffered a meaningful reversal last week, with possible profit taking and month-end rebalancing flows also contributing to a broad dollar retracement.

The ‘Trump trade’ took a bit of a breather last week as bargain hunters emerged to shop for its victims, including Treasury bonds and selected EM currencies that had been cheapened by the post-election selloff.

There were divergences in the so-called Trump trade last week.

Market uncertainty over the US election was resolved in the most clear cut way imaginable, as the Republicans swept not only the presidential contest but also the House and the Senate.

The US dollar has rallied against almost every currency in the world overnight, as investors digest the news of the big outperformance in the polls from Donald Trump.

Markets are bracing for the biggest event risk of the year this week, with Tuesday’s US presidential election to potentially be one of the closest races in recent history.