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How the AUD will react to the strength of retailersWalmart's dominant market position makes it a gauge of retail strength, and James Swerling of Ebury notes that sales are expected to reach 4% higher y/y, healthy but lagging on inflation.Walmart's weak guidance may be a portend of slowing growth ahead and perhaps a more dovish Fed.
Move over King Dollar... the AUD is backIt's been a massive week with central bank news with the BOE, the ECB, and the FED all having their first meetings of the year.Patrick Idquival from Ebury says Powell did his best to be hawkish in his speech when the Fed raised rates by 23bps, but markets weren't convinced.
A strong CNY leading up to CNY (Chinese New Year)Patrick Idquival from Ebury Partners shares his views on the strength of the CNY leading up to CNY (Chinese New Year).He mentions that the big shift in the Chinese Yuan is due to two things, a correction in the USD on the back of the Fed and the Chinese Reopening story.
US dollar rides the Fed's wave.Trading volumes are still quite low, but likely to pick up in coming weeks.James Swerling from Ebury says the US dollar has been moving with the Fed; initially up on the hopes that they were almost done hiking rates, and now cooling off on jobs data.
What China’s reopening means for currency markets.China is set to open its international borders next week ahead of Chinese New Year so we explain what that means for the currency market.Once infection rates become clearer he said we could see a positive story associated with the Aussie Dollar.
Will a black swan rock currency markets this year?The 2023 outlookTypical trading patterns for January this year will either hold up or be skewed by potential geopolitical volatility.
The kiwi ended the week stronger, supported by the weaker US payrolls print alongside building momentum into next week's RBNZ meeting, where markets are pricing a 76% probability of a hike. As noted in our preview last week, we continue to expect the Bank to deliver a hawkish hold rather than move on Wednesday, pausing before what we still see as the start of a hiking cycle in September.
The kiwi had another volatile week, falling below 58 US cents for the first time in two months as US-Iran tensions flared before recovering to close around 58.3 US cents, ending the week above where it opened as prospects of a peace deal lifted risk sentiment. Overall, the currency experienced sharp swings through the week, with movements largely dictated by geopolitical developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations
The kiwi was weaker last week, as USD caught a bid on the back of hotter-than-expected US inflation data, with softer NZ domestic output and stalling US-Iran peace talks also adding further pressure to the local currency.
