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The rally in risk assets on ceasefire optimism came to a halt over the weekend. The ceasefire talks between the US and Iran collapsed in Pakistan and the US announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be blockaded to ships going to or from Iranian ports.
The most important European elections of 2026 are just around the corner. On 12 April, Hungarians will head to the polls to decide whether Fidesz will remain in power after 16 years in government. This is a decision that could alter the course set by Viktor Orbán, leading to a reset in relations with the European Union.
Risk assets rallied sharply late-Tuesday into Asian trading on Wednesday amid the welcome news of a temporary US-Iran ceasefire.
The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
A feeling of deja vu is wafting over markets as the Iran war continues without a clear resolution in sight.
The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting
The war in Iran is now entering its second month without any clear prospects for either a ceasefire or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, with market participants now bracing for the possibility that the conflict drags on for a matter of months, rather than just weeks.
Risk appetite rebounded on Monday morning after some upbeat comments from President Trump suggested that an end to the Iran war may not be as far off as previously feared.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, and as US and Israeli strikes continue, and Iran digs its heels in by continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz, markets are bracing for a conflict that could drag on for a number of months, rather than merely weeks.
Any doubts about whether the dollar still retained its safe haven status in times of geopolitical turmoil have been dispelled.
The Iran war is now in its second week, and markets are bracing for the possibility that it will last a while.
