The US dollar confirms that it remains a safe haven for investors worried at times of global conflict. Maduro's capture, US seizure of unregistered oil tankers, Trump's threats on Denmark and the Iranian protets all contributed to a sense of anxiety and the dollar rallied against its peers, as did gold. The December payroll report on Friday had little impact on markets, other than confirming that we are unlikely to see a Fed cut later this month. Notable outperformance came from Latin American currencies, in spite of the Venezuela crisis, once again showing that the world increasingly views the region as relatively isolated from global turmoil.
AUD
The Aussie dollar held up surprisingly well last week, despite a big miss in the latest CPI report. November inflation unexpectedly dropped by 0.4 p.p to 3.4%, well below the 3.7% pencilled in by economists, while the trimmed mean measures (more closely monitored by the RBA) also dipped to 3.2%. Market participants had rushed to price in RBA hikes following the previous data for October, but the signs of a climb down in price pressures will be very welcome for policymakers, and should take pressure off the bank to raise rates during at least the next couple of meetings. The reaction in the currency market was surprisingly subdued, however, with AUD actually ending the week marginally higher on the US dollar. Focus this week will shift to Thursday’s labour market report.
NZD
The kiwi lost some ground against a broadly stronger US dollar during a quiet week with few domestic economic releases and political developments of note. Although markets are pricing in a potential rate hike later this year, Reserve Bank Governor Breman pushed back last month against expectations of any near-term rate increase, which appears to have put the brakes on kiwi gains. This week will be equally uneventful in New Zealand’s economic calendar, with only the BusinessNZ PMI scheduled for release on Thursday, which has shown a sustained recovery since last May.
USD
The December employment report did ot change in the leats the narrative abiout the US labor market: steady growth and a low fire, low hire labor market. The most heopful data point was a tick down in the unemployment rate. This confirms that this unusual economy is nowhere near a traditional recession. This week's inflation data is perhaps the most important report in months. Much of the consensus around the path of Federal Reserve cuts has been built on the expetcations that inflation is headed down, hwoever gently, and needs to be cofnirmed by this week's data.
