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Investors will be forgiven for having half an eye on the sports pages this month as the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off, bringing the usual mix of drama and excitement. That said, financial markets are set to serve up a spectacle of their own.
The May local elections have accelerated an already precarious political situation for Keir Starmer’s government, and once again brought domestic political risk firmly back onto the radar for currency markets.
Peace talks between the US and Iran continue to inch slowly but surely towards an agreement.
While signs abound that the negotiations between Iran and the US are making progress, the US dollar is holding on to its safe haven gains, and European currencies appear to have trouble taking advantage of the positive investor sentiment.
Financial news last week was dominated by the sharp sell off in bond markets worldwide.
The war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
The standoff between the US and Iran shows little sign of abating, after President Trump dismissed Tehran's response to peace overtures over the weekend.
The war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
Say it quietly, but the war in Iran appears to be edging slowly towards an eagerly awaited finale, much to the relief of market participants.
The fragile ceasefire in the Iran war is fraying as the US actively tries to break Iran's blockade while maintaining its own.
In light of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, now is not the time for the Fed to over commit, and we fully expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at its April meeting.
While the shaky Iran war ceasefire is holding, for now, the near-complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still in force from both sides, and there is little sign that peace talks are making progress, or even taking place.
