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The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting
The war in Iran is now entering its second month without any clear prospects for either a ceasefire or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, with market participants now bracing for the possibility that the conflict drags on for a matter of months, rather than just weeks.
Risk appetite rebounded on Monday morning after some upbeat comments from President Trump suggested that an end to the Iran war may not be as far off as previously feared.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, and as US and Israeli strikes continue, and Iran digs its heels in by continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz, markets are bracing for a conflict that could drag on for a number of months, rather than merely weeks.
Any doubts about whether the dollar still retained its safe haven status in times of geopolitical turmoil have been dispelled.
The Iran war is now in its second week, and markets are bracing for the possibility that it will last a while.
News of the joint US-Israel attack on Iran broke after the close of trading in a week of relatively mild trading in financial markets.
A tentative rally in the dollar was sharply reversed over the weekend after the US Supreme Court ruled most of President Trump's tariffs to be illegal.
The US dollar confirms that it remains a safe haven for investors worried at times of global conflict. Maduro's capture, US seizure of unregistered oil tankers, Trump's threats on Denmark and the Iranian protets all contributed to a sense of anxiety and the dollar rallied against its peers, as did gold.
Last week's wobbliness in equity markets and tech stocks did not carry over into currency markets. G10 currencies traded in tight ranges, wi...
The Federal Reserve "hawkish cut" last week seems to have taken markets by surprise. Clearly, further cuts are far from a consensus view in the central bank, and all asset classes reacted to the surprise in the traditional ways. Interest rates shot up, credit spreads widened, stocks sold off, and the dollar strengthened.
