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The dollar managed to hold on rather well last week, considering that the only economic data point out of the US in weeks (September inflation) undershot expectations and all but guaranteed cuts at the next two Federal Reserve meetings.
The absence of macroeconomic news in the US caused by the Federal government shutdown is creating strange correlations in financial markets....
The dollar had its best week in months as political concerns hobbled the euro. However, the renewed trade war between the US and China threw a wrench across risk assets late Friday.
Generally strong economic data last week lead markets to start pricing out some Fed cuts.Spending remains healthy and consistent with decent growth, in spite of the slowing labor market.
US inflation remains well above Federal Reserve targets, as has for the past five years, and is slowly trending higher. Meanwhile, signs of a labor market slowdown continue to pile up.Pressure of the Fed to cut piles up, and stocks somewhat incongruously continue to hit fresh records.
US inflation remains well above Federal Reserve targets, as has for the past five years, and is slowly trending higher. Meanwhile, signs of a labor market slowdown continue to pile up.Pressure of the Fed to cut piles up, and stocks somewhat incongruously continue to hit fresh records.
A tentative dollar rally came to a sudden end Friday after the release of the weak August labor market report, which suggested the great US jobs machines grinding to a halt.Markest quickly priced in cuts in the three remaining Federal Reserve meetings left in 2025, bonds rallied and stocks sold off.
Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook is the most direct attack on the Fed's independence since at least the 70s, yet so far the dollar seems to be taking it in stride.
The dollar traded lower against most currencies last week as market participants became increasingly jittery ahead of Friday’s looming tariffs deadline.Progress towards the striking of trade deals has been painfully slow since Liberation Day.
The stabilization of the US dollar hit an air pocket last week after a minor Trump official announced that the president was getting ready to fire chair Powell.
Markets seem to be weathering the latest round of Trumpian chaos. The letters he keeps sending to trading partners announcing very high tariffs starting in AUgust first are being interpreted as mostly yet another postponement of his July 9th deadline, and seen mostly as negotiating bluster.
The dollar broke to fresh post-"liberation day" lows as pressure builds on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. This pressure comes from both the Trump administration, which is making increasingly clear that it does not believe in central bank independence, and a weaker ton in economic data out of the US.
