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The ongoing war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
The war in Iran is now entering its second month without any clear prospects for either a ceasefire or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, with market participants now bracing for the possibility that the conflict drags on for a matter of months, rather than just weeks.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, and as US and Israeli strikes continue, and Iran digs its heels in by continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz, markets are bracing for a conflict that could drag on for a number of months, rather than merely weeks.
The Iran war is now in its second week, and markets are bracing for the possibility that it will last a while.
The US dollar confirms that it remains a safe haven for investors worried at times of global conflict. Maduro's capture, US seizure of unregistered oil tankers, Trump's threats on Denmark and the Iranian protets all contributed to a sense of anxiety and the dollar rallied against its peers, as did gold.
Last week's wobbliness in equity markets and tech stocks did not carry over into currency markets. G10 currencies traded in tight ranges, wi...
The Federal Reserve "hawkish cut" last week seems to have taken markets by surprise. Clearly, further cuts are far from a consensus view in the central bank, and all asset classes reacted to the surprise in the traditional ways. Interest rates shot up, credit spreads widened, stocks sold off, and the dollar strengthened.
The dollar managed to hold on rather well last week, considering that the only economic data point out of the US in weeks (September inflation) undershot expectations and all but guaranteed cuts at the next two Federal Reserve meetings.
The absence of macroeconomic news in the US caused by the Federal government shutdown is creating strange correlations in financial markets....
The dollar had its best week in months as political concerns hobbled the euro. However, the renewed trade war between the US and China threw a wrench across risk assets late Friday.
Generally strong economic data last week lead markets to start pricing out some Fed cuts.Spending remains healthy and consistent with decent growth, in spite of the slowing labor market.
