Last week's wobbliness in equity markets and tech stocks did not carry over into currency markets. G10 currencies traded in tight ranges, with the exception of the Swiss Franc which rallied hard on news of a trade agreement with the US that lowers Swiss tariffs to the European level, and the Japanese Yen, down on renewed concerns about fiscal and monetary profligacy. Although the US government shutdown is over, uncertainty remains about which key missing economic reports will be released and when. The key Federal Reserve rate decision in December will wholly depend on this data, and therefore currency markets are afraid to embrace any trends before the smoke clears on the state of the US economy.
AUD
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady last week. With the jobs market holding up relatively well, despite showing signs of cooling, and domestic inflation ticking back up again, markets saw almost no chance of another cut at this month’s meeting. The vote was unanimous, and policymakers did not even consider lowering rates again according to Governor Bullock. The bank warned over rising inflation, while saying that it would still take some time for the effects of previous easing to be felt in the economy.
These hawkish remarks support our view in favour of no further cuts for the foreseeable future - a clear bullish development for AUD. The October jobs report will be the focus this week, with the data to be released on Thursday.
NZD
Last week, the kiwi snapped a two-week losing streak against a broadly weaker dollar, buoyed by a robust October manufacturing PMI—which climbed from 50.1 to 51.4—and encouraging data from China, where inflation has returned to positive territory and retail sales exceeded expectations last month. However, the NZD's partial recovery may prove short-lived, with the RBNZ widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps this month, particularly after last week's inflation expectations report showed them remaining well-anchored.
Key releases to watch this week include October's Business NZ PSI, following eight consecutive months of contraction in the services sector, and Q3 PPI.
USD
CNY
The yuan continued its march up against a broadly weaker US dollar last week, reaching its strongest position in a year. While they had limited impact on the yuan, readings from China released on Friday confirm a slowdown at the beginning of the fourth quarter and add to the sense that the economy is lacking vigour. Fixed asset investments contracted noticeably more than expected, and year-over-year growth in both key indicators – retail sales (2.9%) and industrial production (4.9%) – eased to their lowest levels since August last year.
Overall, the data reaffirms the persistent softness in domestic demand. The property slump continues, casting a shadow on consumption. Without bolder policy support, domestic demand risks remaining in limbo, which is increasingly problematic given the headwinds facing exports, which lost ground in October after earlier outperformance driven by front-loading. This week is set to be a quiet one in terms of economic releases. LPR rates are set to remain stable for the sixth month. Aside from macro, politics remains at the centre of attention with tensions between China and Japan escalating.
