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Financial news last week was dominated by the sharp sell off in bond markets worldwide.
The war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
The standoff between the US and Iran shows little sign of abating, after President Trump dismissed Tehran's response to peace overtures over the weekend.
The war in Iran, and the subsequent heightened geopolitical risk premium and acute volatility in commodity markets, make for a challenging backdrop for FX forecasting.
The fragile ceasefire in the Iran war is fraying as the US actively tries to break Iran's blockade while maintaining its own.
While the shaky Iran war ceasefire is holding, for now, the near-complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still in force from both sides, and there is little sign that peace talks are making progress, or even taking place.
Trump's optimistic announcements on Friday regarding a possible agreement with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were greeted with a severe fall in oil prices and a sharp move higher in risk assets. The former proved to be short-lived.
The rally in risk assets on ceasefire optimism came to a halt over the weekend. The ceasefire talks between the US and Iran collapsed in Pakistan and the US announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be blockaded to ships going to or from Iranian ports.
A feeling of deja vu is wafting over markets as the Iran war continues without a clear resolution in sight.
The war in Iran is now entering its second month without any clear prospects for either a ceasefire or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Risk appetite rebounded on Monday morning after some upbeat comments from President Trump suggested that an end to the Iran war may not be as far off as previously feared.
The war in Iran rages on without a clear end in sight, and as US and Israeli strikes continue, and Iran digs its heels in by continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz, markets are bracing for a conflict that could drag on for a number of months, rather than merely weeks.
